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ANAaron Nesmith

PLAYER PROFILE · 2025-26

Aaron Nesmith

Indiana Pacers · SF · 6'5"

13.8Points
4.2Rebounds
1.9Assists

Season box scores · 2025-26 · 45 games. Team shown for this season.

Player impact

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE

+1.15AUGURMeasured band ±1.25
+1.34Offense
-0.19Defense

Our estimate of impact per 100 possessions. Read the value alongside its sample and measured band.

How AUGUR works

AUGUR · 3-season window · 11,278 possessions · Updated 2026-09-19

How well we read him

0.743Error / own variationLower means easier to forecast

More forecastable than 77% of the qualifying pool.

Harder to readEasier to read
Our typical miss5.5
His game-to-game variation7.4
Expected at this scoring level6.4

Forecastability is not consistency: a player can vary a lot and still be well predicted. Percentiles compare 248 players with 20+ games and 8.0+ PPG. The index still favors more variable players to some extent.

Forecasts + box scores · 2025-26 · 45 games · Updated 2026-09-19

His shot fingerprint

Three-point finisher

Shots per 100 attempts, relative to other SF players. The fine marker shows the league relative to the same baseline.

At the rim28.5% of attempts-9.0
Short mid-range13.1% of attempts-1.0
Long mid-range4.3% of attempts-0.8
Corner three14.1% of attempts+3.3
Above-break three40.0% of attempts+7.5
Less oftenPosition baselineMore often
11.3%Self-created makes
51.7%Effective FG

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 512 attempts · 80 position peers · Updated 2026-09-19

Our record on him

The night we missed

2025-11-01 · vs GSW

Projected11.3
Scored31.0

The call we got closest

2026-03-18 · vs POR

Projected15.1
Scored15.0

Our 80% points range contained the result in 76% of his graded games. The target is 80%; higher coverage is not a higher accuracy score.

Archived forecasts + results · 2025-26 · 45 graded games · Updated 2026-09-19

Passing connections

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 161 assisted makes · Updated 2026-09-19