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PLPelle Larsson

PLAYER PROFILE · 2025-26

Pelle Larsson

Miami Heat · SG · 6'5"

11.4Points
3.5Rebounds
3.4Assists

Season box scores · 2025-26 · 70 games. Team shown for this season.

Player impact

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE

+1.27AUGURMeasured band ±1.39
+0.88Offense
+0.39Defense

Our estimate of impact per 100 possessions. Read the value alongside its sample and measured band.

How AUGUR works

AUGUR · 3-season window · 5,433 possessions · Updated 2026-09-19

How well we read him

0.762Error / own variationLower means easier to forecast

More forecastable than 69% of the qualifying pool.

Harder to readEasier to read
Our typical miss4.8
His game-to-game variation6.3
Expected at this scoring level6.0

Forecastability is not consistency: a player can vary a lot and still be well predicted. Percentiles compare 248 players with 20+ games and 8.0+ PPG. The index still favors more variable players to some extent.

Forecasts + box scores · 2025-26 · 70 games · Updated 2026-09-19

His shot fingerprint

Rim scorer

Shots per 100 attempts, relative to other SG players. The fine marker shows the league relative to the same baseline.

At the rim57.4% of attempts+23.5
Short mid-range7.8% of attempts-4.3
Long mid-range0.5% of attempts-4.0
Corner three8.2% of attempts-3.6
Above-break three26.1% of attempts-11.5
Less oftenPosition baselineMore often
28.0%Self-created makes
55.1%Effective FG

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 563 attempts · 114 position peers · Updated 2026-09-19

Our record on him

The night we missed

2025-12-26 · vs ATL

Projected4.5
Scored21.0

The call we got closest

2026-01-25 · vs PHO

Projected10.0
Scored10.0

Our 80% points range contained the result in 76% of his graded games. The target is 80%; higher coverage is not a higher accuracy score.

Archived forecasts + results · 2025-26 · 70 graded games · Updated 2026-09-19

Passing connections

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 227 assisted makes · Updated 2026-09-19