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MBMarvin Bagley III

PLAYER PROFILE · 2025-26

Marvin Bagley III

Dallas Mavericks · PF · 6'10"

10.4Points
6.1Rebounds
1.4Assists

Season box scores · 2025-26 · 60 games. Team shown for this season.

Player impact

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE

+1.44AUGURMeasured band ±1.39
+0.96Offense
+0.47Defense

Our estimate of impact per 100 possessions. Read the value alongside its sample and measured band.

How AUGUR works

AUGUR · 3-season window · 5,113 possessions · Updated 2026-09-19

How well we read him

0.789Error / own variationLower means easier to forecast

More forecastable than 48% of the qualifying pool.

Harder to readEasier to read
Our typical miss4.5
His game-to-game variation5.7
Expected at this scoring level5.8

Forecastability is not consistency: a player can vary a lot and still be well predicted. Percentiles compare 248 players with 20+ games and 8.0+ PPG. The index still favors more variable players to some extent.

Forecasts + box scores · 2025-26 · 60 games · Updated 2026-09-19

His shot fingerprint

Rim scorer

Shots per 100 attempts, relative to other PF players. The fine marker shows the league relative to the same baseline.

At the rim83.0% of attempts+38.8
Short mid-range4.4% of attempts-7.5
Long mid-range0.0% of attempts-3.9
Corner three2.2% of attempts-10.2
Above-break three10.5% of attempts-17.2
Less oftenPosition baselineMore often
34.6%Self-created makes
64.7%Effective FG

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 411 attempts · 81 position peers · Updated 2026-09-19

Our record on him

The night we missed

2026-03-27 · vs POR

Projected8.1
Scored26.0

The call we got closest

2026-03-23 · vs GSW

Projected8.9
Scored9.0

Our 80% points range contained the result in 83% of his graded games. The target is 80%; higher coverage is not a higher accuracy score.

Archived forecasts + results · 2025-26 · 60 graded games · Updated 2026-09-19

Passing connections

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 95 assisted makes · Updated 2026-09-19