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DSDru Smith

PLAYER PROFILE · 2025-26

Dru Smith

Miami Heat · SG · 6'2"

5.6Points
2.5Rebounds
2.6Assists

Season box scores · 2025-26 · 70 games. Team shown for this season.

Player impact

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE

+3.06AUGURMeasured band ±1.16
+0.31Offense
+2.76Defense

Our estimate of impact per 100 possessions. Read the value alongside its sample and measured band.

How AUGUR works

AUGUR · 3-season window · 3,100 possessions · Updated 2026-09-19

How well we read him

0.794Error / own variationLower means easier to forecast
Our typical miss2.7
His game-to-game variation3.4
Expected at this scoring level4.6

Forecastability is not consistency: a player can vary a lot and still be well predicted. Percentiles compare 248 players with 20+ games and 8.0+ PPG. The index still favors more variable players to some extent.

Forecasts + box scores · 2025-26 · 70 games · Updated 2026-09-19

His shot fingerprint

Rim scorer

Shots per 100 attempts, relative to other SG players. The fine marker shows the league relative to the same baseline.

At the rim50.5% of attempts+16.6
Short mid-range9.5% of attempts-2.6
Long mid-range0.3% of attempts-4.2
Corner three13.5% of attempts+1.7
Above-break three26.2% of attempts-11.4
Less oftenPosition baselineMore often
40.7%Self-created makes
47.4%Effective FG

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 325 attempts · 114 position peers · Updated 2026-09-19

Our record on him

The night we missed

2025-11-08 · vs POR

Projected5.5
Scored13.0

The call we got closest

2025-11-05 · vs DEN

Projected5.0
Scored5.0

Our 80% points range contained the result in 89% of his graded games. The target is 80%; higher coverage is not a higher accuracy score.

Archived forecasts + results · 2025-26 · 70 graded games · Updated 2026-09-19

Passing connections

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 133 assisted makes · Updated 2026-09-19