What a team actually loses tonight
A player rating becomes more useful when it helps explain a matchup. How AUGUR connects player impact, the injury report and a team’s chances of winning.
Basketball articles and explanations
Explore player impact, team strength and the ideas behind Vates Sports.
Gravity, measured without cameras
The league measures defensive attention with tracking cameras. We measured it from public play-by-play, with arithmetic.
Every stat. Every player.Every night.
Offseason
The 2025-26 season is over. These are last season's slates, kept open so you can see how every projection landed. Global 2026-27 projections arrive with the pre-season forecasts.
AUGUR player impact · latest The unit is points per 100 possessions. A score of 0 is league average.
Box scores miss screens, spacing and defense. AUGUR starts from what the scoreboard says a lineup should have produced, strips the luck out, and splits the credit among the five on the floor, combining offense and defense in one rating. Higher is better; players under 2,000 possessions are excluded, their estimates are still settling.
Gravity Gravity and AUGUR capture different skills: their correlation in this sample is only 0.07.
A different skill from impact: how much a defense bends toward a player, measured as the lift in his teammates' shot quality when he is on the floor. The league tracks this with cameras; we read it off play-by-play. Needs 4,000 possessions to settle.
| Player | AUGUR | Off | Def | Gravity | Poss |
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| Player | Gravity | Poss |
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Separate several players with commas (e.g. doncic, jokic). A team code like LAL matches the whole roster.
| Player | Matchup | PTS | AST | REB | DREB | OREB | FGM | FGA | 3PM | 3PA | 2PM | 2PA | FTM | FTA | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | +/- | MIN |
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Every player on the slate with every projected stat, sortable and searchable. A free account unlocks it.
Create your free accountSign inTop 15 · projected range Bar spans the 80% interval (P10–P90). Hover for the median and point estimate.
Risk vs. reward Projection (x) vs. uncertainty = P90−P10 (y). The dashed curve is the empirical league-median spread at each projection level (measured from every stored prediction; it's concave, not linear). Dot colour = distance from it: green = tighter than the median player at the same projection (a value pick), red = more volatile. Top players labelled; hover for detail.
Team
Rec
Pct
ELO
ELO Gain
Roster
ELO over time · Higher lines mean a stronger team rating. Choose a period above, then select up to 10 teams in the ranking. Select a line to keep that team in focus. Select its end label to change the line color.
Hover or click a line to inspect a team
| Team | Rec | Net | ORtg | DRtg | Pace | eFG% | 3PM | TOV | Opp eFG% | Opp 3PM | Forced TO |
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Separate several players with commas. A team code like LAL matches the whole roster.
Compare vs
| Player | GP | PPG | Proj | Volatility | MAE | Bias |
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Articles & explanations
Explore the game through data. Player stories, clear explanations of our metrics, and a closer look at our projections.