PLAYER PROFILE · 2025-26

AJ Johnson

Dallas Mavericks · SG · 6'5"

3.3Points

1.1Rebounds

1.0Assists

Season box scores · 2025-26 · 48 games. Team shown for this season.

Player impact

BEYOND THE BOX SCORE

-3.50AUGURMeasured band ±1.16

-1.79Offense

-1.72Defense

Our estimate of impact per 100 possessions. Read the value alongside its sample and measured band.

How AUGUR works

AUGUR · 3-season window · 2,140 possessions · Updated 2026-09-19

How well we read him

0.755Error / own variationLower means easier to forecast

Our typical miss3.7

His game-to-game variation4.9

Expected at this scoring level3.8

Forecastability is not consistency: a player can vary a lot and still be well predicted. Percentiles compare 248 players with 20+ games and 8.0+ PPG. The index still favors more variable players to some extent.

Forecasts + box scores · 2025-26 · 48 games · Updated 2026-09-19

His shot fingerprint

Rim creator

Shots per 100 attempts, relative to other SG players. The fine marker shows the league relative to the same baseline.

At the rim63.6% of attempts+29.7

Short mid-range2.8% of attempts-9.3

Long mid-range1.1% of attempts-3.4

Corner three6.2% of attempts-5.6

Above-break three26.1% of attempts-11.5

Less oftenPosition baselineMore often

56.1%Self-created makes

35.8%Effective FG

Play-by-play · 2025-26 · 176 attempts · 114 position peers · Updated 2026-09-19

Our record on him

The night we missed

2026-02-01 · vs SAC

Projected4.3

Scored17.0

The call we got closest

2026-01-16 · vs SAC

Projected4.4

Scored4.0

Our 80% points range contained the result in 83% of his graded games. The target is 80%; higher coverage is not a higher accuracy score.

Archived forecasts + results · 2025-26 · 48 graded games · Updated 2026-09-19